Key markets for the Chilean forestry sector will face a scenario of moderate growth

The main economies linked to the foreign trade of the Chilean forestry sector will face a scenario of moderate growth over the next two years, with a particularly marked slowdown in China, the main destination market for national forestry exports.

According to OECD projections, as compiled by INFOR in its analysis of the international economic scenario, China would go from growth of 5.0% in 2025 to 4.5% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027. Despite the slowdown, the Asian giant would continue to show the highest expansion rates among the main trading partners of the Chilean forestry sector.

In the case of the United States, the second relevant market for forestry exports, the economy would maintain growth of 2.0% during 2025 and 2026, before moderating in 2027. The chart prepared based on OECD projections places this expansion at 1.8% for that year.

According to INFOR's analysis, both China and the United States would find part of their momentum in investments associated with technology sectors and in their self-sufficiency capabilities to face potential impacts coming from the energy sector.

However, risk factors persist. Consumer confidence remains relatively low in both economies and, particularly in the United States, a potential persistence of inflationary pressures could lead to a more restrictive monetary policy, affecting private demand. The monthly inflation rate of -0.4% recorded in June helped moderate these concerns, although the resumption of attacks against Iran once again introduced upward pressures on prices.

Japan and Europe also show low dynamism

The scenario is also not particularly expansive for other relevant markets for the Chilean forestry industry.

Japan recorded growth of 1.1% in 2025 and is projected to advance only 0.6% in 2026, before reaching 0.8% in 2027.

In the eurozone, expectations point to an expansion of 1.4% in 2025, which would decrease to 0.8% in 2026, before partially recovering to 1.2% in 2027.

Meanwhile, Mexico would maintain growth of 0.8% in both 2025 and 2026, although it would experience a recovery to 1.8% in 2027.

The chart also includes South Korea, whose economy appears with a projected expansion of 2.6% in 2026, after growth of 1.0% in 2025, before moderating to 1.9% in 2027.

In global terms, the world economy would grow 3.4% in 2025, 2.8% in 2026, and 3.1% in 2027, configuring a scenario of lower dynamism for international trade.

For the Chilean forestry sector, these figures are relevant due to the exposure of its exports to these markets. The slowdown in China and the moderate growth of the United States, along with the low dynamism expected for Japan and Europe, anticipate an international scenario that could keep the expansion of demand for forestry products contained, although with important differences between markets and opportunities associated with the evolution of construction, industry, and technology investments.